Osservatorio Guerra civile in Iraq e Siria

Aleppo, altra puntata verso est, dall'aeroporto, shilka in azione, finalmente hanno trovato vernice per una camo decente



Erdy caro, metti le manine sul banco...

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-crisis-usa-turkey-idUSKBN0TO01T20151205

http://www.yenisafak.com/en/world/erdogan-15000-troops-on-border-2353250

Un altra cartina, nord di Aleppo, vicino al confine turco, FSA picchia i kurdi, ISIS picchia FSA:

 

Combat scampagnata delle milizie scite irachene a sud di Aleppo, chi ha fatto il militare si ritroverà spesso




Interessante, a proposito delle basi turche in iraq:

https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/673164601614344196/photo/1
https://twitter.com/trbrtc/status/673169291987058689/photo/1

 

S-400 si, S-400 no:
https://rusi.org/commentary/s-400s-syria-now-you-see-them-now-you-don’t

http://syria.liveuamap.com/en/2015/6-december-s400-air-defence-systems-and-ruaf-sukhois-in-hmeimem

A quanto pare i turchi non pensano sia un fotomontaggio il tipo sulla nave...
http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/ru...ssile.aspx?PageID=238&NID=92121&NewsCatID=341

Un po' di cartine

Latakia:





Aleppo Nord:


Aleppo Sud:

 

Questa se confermata sarebbe enorme: https://twitter.com/Syria_Protector
1 morto e sei feriti. Bomba in buca ?

 

pare abbiano preso di mira anche un bmp1 e un t-72 vai a vedere... ma l'attacco non è chiaro se americano o inglese, domattina se ne saprà di più... Secondo me è più probabile che sia russo, non sarebbe il primo fuoco amico

 

La BBC è più cauta: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35024408
Gli americani negano: https://twitter.com/AFP/status/673793218761232384
CENTCOM... Tutto tace

 

Nel frattempo ISIS attacca in seguito ai bombardamenti aerei
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/reports-isis-attacks-ayash-base-following-us-led-airstrikes/

E la Turchia afferma che ha il dovere di difendere i suoi soldati su territorio iracheno, mentre il governo chiede aiuto ai russi.

 

se davvero l'Iraq facesse questa richiesta, non mi stupirei di vedere la base turca incenerita dai missili delle Buyan e/o dei Tu-160

Perdona un'offesa e ne incoraggerai molte

 

e poi ? una guerra dichiarata tra Russia e Turchia e tutto il M.O. a ferro e fuoco (Sauditi, Iraniani ...)

Putin (diversamente da Erdogan) è una persona intelligente ! Sa quali sono i limiti di una escalation. Lo si è visto in Ucraina.

Non incenerirà nessuna base turca. Al massimo troveranno un modo per abbattere "per errore" un aereo turco o per mandare un segnale "molto forte". Oppure, saranno gli iracheni, con supporto iraniano e russo, a bombardare la base.

Io sinceramente spero ancora che siano gli americani a fermare i turchi prima che scoppi l'incendio. Negli States le voci CONTRO ERDOGAN sono ormai molteplici e bi-partisan

 

ah perché, non si sta cercando appunto quello?

A mio avviso i Turchi stanno (o sono spinti a) tirando la Russia per la giacca esattamente come prima erano gli Ucraini.
Una qualsiasi mossa russa comporterebbe la chiusura dei Dardanelli, ma credo che presto o tardi Putin non avrá molto margine di manovra, a meno che non accetti la sconfitta "diplomatica".Tanto vale fare una entrata in campo "pirotecnica"

La sensazione di trovarsi in una situazione molto simile all'agosto 1914 é scomodamente forte

 

Martin Van Creveld

http://www.martin-van-creveld.com/?p=471

The Idiots

Next, in 2003, came the invasion of Iraq. In the name of democracy, women’s rights, and, some dared suggest, oil. ... The invasion of Iraq, followed by his own execution, destabilized the country. It also stoked the religious antagonisms that had been waiting just under the surface of his secular rule. The outcome: massive terrorism committed by Shi’ites against Sunnis and by Sunnis against Shi’ites. Not to mention the birth of Daesh which started in Iraq and has since spread to Syria as well.

The next war in which the West intervened was the one in Libya. Again it was done in the name of democracy, humanity, and women’s rights—the dictator and his collaborators, it was later claimed, had been raping their own female soldiers left and right. Again the opponent was a secular dictator. Muamar Gadhafi was as cruel as many and more quirky than most. But at any rate he was able to maintain order in his own country. During his last decade or so in power he even opposed terrorism. Following a civil war that lasted some six months, he was defeated and killed. With the result that his country fell apart and is now one of the happiest stamping grounds where Daesh is having a field day recruiting supporters and threatening Europe with terrorism.

Next, Syria. Like Iraq, Syria was ruled by a military dictator, Bashir Assad. As a ruler he was neither better nor worse than Hussein and Gadhafi had been. He supported Hezbollah against Israel and allied himself with Iran, in many ways acting as the latter’s long arm on the shore of the Mediterranean. However, like the other two, he ruled his country with an iron fist and does not seem to have engaged in international terrorism. Not perfect, one would have thought, but as good a regime as a country like Syria can have. In May 2011 civil war broke out. In this war the West, and less actively Israel, found themselves siding with Assad’s opponents. They even invented a “liberal” opposition which, as it turned out, hardly existed. Three years passed before Washington suddenly woke up to the existence of Daesh, a Sunni-led terrorist organization that had spread from Iraq. Again, enough said.

Let’s finally cease kidding ourselves. Arab countries, all of them without exception, are backward. Most are still tribal. That means that they are organized on lines other, more developed countries, have left behind centuries ago. Very few have what one would call a civil society consisting of a solid middle class. None has ever known the meaning either of democracy, or of the rule of law, or of human rights, or of freedom as Westerners understand it.

Will the idiots, and I don’t mean the Arabs of whom nothing can be expected, ever, ever learn?

 

Non se vogliono andare... O furbi o scemi...

http://rudaw.net/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=177495

Nel mentre i russi portano un altro pezzetto di "escalation" nel mediterraneo

http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-mideast-crisis-russia-syria-idUKKBN0TR0RU20151208

Sarà la solita bufala di radio fronte ?
http://www.orient-news.net/en/news_show/96312/0/Tens-of-Russian-soldiers-killed-in-Annoba-mountain

E Assad ammette: riforniamo il pkk... Questa situazione è sempre più ingarbugliata, pare il nodo gordiano e sappiamo com'è andata
http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/...ing-ammunition-to-pkk-affiliated-pyd-in-syria

Altra allegra scampagnata di hezbollah nei dintorni di aleppo, ma perchè fanno di questi video fiume ??



Kuweires Airport, saltando tutta la parte dei convenevoli, da 1:40 si vedono cose interessanti, aerei sulla pista, quindi credo che l'aeroporto sia operativo e fuori dalla portata dei mortai, e la rete di gallerie, che sembrano scavate a martelletto e mazza nella roccia! Che lavorone... Stanno diventando esperte termiti in Siria:



Bragahd, nord Aleppo, ciò che rimane dopo la battaglia:






La situazione a Nord di Aleppo, sempre più i contorni di "avanza tu che avanzo io"



e una bell'animazione sulla situazione a sud di Aleppo dall'inizio dell'offensiva siriana:


e questo che è spettacolare:

http://imgur.com/iAGyQGZ

 

Non si capisce più nulla...

http://english.shafaaq.com/politics...baghdad-,-we-are-not-a-part-in-the-issue.html
http://rudaw.net/NewsDetails.aspx?pageid=177521

Ormai l'unica cosa certa è che l'isis si sta spanciando dalle risate...

 

I Curdi iracheni (Barzani) si sono schierati dalla parte dei Turchi, mentre questi ultimi hanno fatto e stanno facendo di tutto per distruggere (in senso letterale) i curdi turchi (PKK) e siriani (YPG) : basta pensare al supporto turco alle operazioni dell'ISIS a Kobane nella scorsa primavera / estate.

Ora, la domanda è : Barzani è impazzito, sta tradendo la causa del Kurdistan, è corrotto ???
O, più semplicemente, la Turchia gli ha offerto sottobanco un accordo di spartizione dell'Iraq (Mosul ad Ankara, Kurdistan iracheno libero, cosa che Baghdad non accetterà mai) e per questo si è venduto ???

E' comunque illuminante (per chi non avesse ancora capito le dinamiche locali) è che l'ISIS, che formalmente occupa Mosul e l'area dell'Iraq nord-occidentale fino al confine siriano (e oltre) non reagisca minimamente alla presenza turca e a queste manovre che "teoricamente" ne minano il potere locale.

 

Io mi chiedo (retoricamente) se la Turchia fa quello che vuole dentro una alleanza che teoricamente dovrebbe agire per unitá d'intenti, oppure agiscono su mandato

 

Gli americani dietro le azioni antirusse di erdogan? Non è un po' complottista pensarlo? Anche se non mi stupirebbe

 

È una mossa intelligente quella turca visto che va a mettere un solco tra i curdi.

 

Contro-argomento turco all'invasione turca dell'iraq:
1. Turkey has had military observation power in Iraq since the Gulf war I.
This observation is run in the location called Bamerne, close to the Turkish-Iraqi border. There are tanks as well. Those 25 tanks that were sent to the Bashika camp were being kept ready in the border anyway.

2. The Bashika camp is not a base of military operations, it is a training base that was established by the acknowledgment and approval of both Iraqi Kurdistan and the Iraqi government. The reinforcement units that were sent are not special units, they were/are sent to maintain the security of the camp.

3. Bashika is not the only Turkish camp within Iraq. In Diana, in Arbil too there is a camp that is serving for the training of Peshmerga, who saved the victims in Sinjar on November 12.

4. The request for the establishment of the camp was first made by the governor of Mosul, Usel Nujaifi, when the city fell to ISIS on June 11, 2014. He called for Turkey's help to train the unit called "Hashti watani', mainly made of Sunni Arabs but also includes Kurds as well as those fleeing the ISIS such as Turkmens, Christians and Yazidis. They fight for the liberation of Mosul.

5. Remember that before Mosul fell, the Iraqi army in Mosul, made of about 70 thousand Shia Arabs, left everything behind in a night and fled the city and the city fell to the hands of ISIS on June 11, 2014.

6. The request to establish the camp and train the Iraqis against ISIS was also discussed with the Iraqi PM Ibadi on December, 2014 and the camp began to operate in March 2015.

As of today, 2044 people have been trained in that camp. About half of them fought in Sinjar.

7. New talks were required for the reinforcement of the camp, following the ISIS attacks in Ankara and Suruç in Turkey. The final situation was also discussed with Obama's guy tacking the ISIS Brett McGurk.

It turns out the reinforcementwas also expected by the Iraqi Minister of Defense, Ubeydi but they planned it to take place on December 2014 but Turkey decided to do it a little earlier due to the crisis with Russia and other elements supporting Russia and Iran as well as PKK. The Iraqi government cannot protect the camp, so Turkey stepped in.

8. The minister of Defense of Iraq, Ubeydi, visited Sinjar following its liberation from ISIS. And then toured the city of Mosul in a helicopter and said that it is now Mosul that will be liberate. On 27 November, 3 days before downing the Russian jet, he also visite the Bashika camp and said that the liberation of Mosul would begin soon. The minister of defense of Turkey, Yılmaz, called Ubeydi on December 5 and confirmed that the units being sents are for protective purposes.

9. The official speaker of the Iraqi Kurdistan, Dizayi also twitted that the Turkish army presence is not new in Iraqi Kurdistan and Iraq and that the reinforcement is being sent for the training in the camp.

Then why is Iraq whining?

One possible reason is the crisis between Russia and Turkey. Also, Iran pressures Iraq to its marrows. Iran is not happy that Hashti Shaabi (the Shia unit) was replaced by Hasthi watani (the sunni unit) as well as Turkey's aid in the city. It is also probable that different ministries and offices in Iraq are not coordinating well with each other and unaware of one another's operations.



Now you know.

 

altri cruise, ma da sottomarino stavolta

 

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