Osservatorio Guerra civile in Iraq e Siria

http://southfront.org/map-the-battle-for-aleppo-the-mother-of-all-battles/

Anche i turchi tirano su un muro:

 

Una lunga diretta, 70 minuti, non si capisce da dove esattamente, comunque Aleppo o giù di lì

 

Dovrebbero essere miliziani curdi della YPG penso..

https://it.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unità_di_Protezione_Popolare

 

Tigri in azione, tra aleppo e l'aeroporto di kweires, l'ultimo minuto e mezzo è una carrellata di isis trucidati in malo modo:



Che il giocattolino hezbollah sia caduto qui ??



Alnushra ieri, la preparazione delle difese e combattimenti a ratyan

https://ia801500.us.archive.org/14/...اهدين جبهة النصرة إلى محور رتيان ومعارسته.mp4

 

La Tiger Force dice di avere il controllo di Al-Sin:


Semba che l'NDF, ieri, dopo le mazzate prese a bayanoon abbia cambiato obbiettivo:



"robe" in movimento anche a sud, ripulita Shaykh Miskin è la volta di Athman, poco a nord di Daraa

Nel mentre gli americani stanno finendo le bombe intelligenti http://arstechnica.com/information-...unning-short-of-smart-bombs-in-isis-campaign/

 

Un articolo interessante sulle prospettive della guerra, ed una intelligente interpretazione della situazione e dei fatti

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...conflict-is-at-a-decisive-point-a6829891.html

Syrian civil war: Why the endless conflict is at a decisive point
Talks in Geneva may produce little of substance, but winners and losers are starting to emerge

The problem about ending the war in Syria and Iraq is that there is a multitude of players who are too strong to lose but too weak to win. Countries and movements such as Iran and Hezbollah see themselves as fighting for their very existence in a war they cannot afford to lose. Others, like Saudi Arabia and Turkey have invested too much credibility in the struggle for Syria to admit they are not going to achieve their aim of ousting President Bashar al-Assad.

...

Wars sometimes end by exhaustion rather than agreement, and that may be the best that can be expected for Syria.

...

The difficulty here is that cult-like movements such as Isis and al-Nusra exist to fight for and live up to their Islamic faith by fighting what they see as demonic enemies.

...

The Russian military intervention four months ago means that Assad is not going to lose, though he is unlikely to win decisively. He remains in power but only because of the increased support from Iran, Russia and Hezbollah in Lebanon and, even with their backing, his army has not recaptured cities he lost last year, such as Palmyra and Idlib.

...

Winners and losers are beginning to emerge in Syria, though not all of those involved can see this. Isis is looking increasingly battered by a medley of enemies backed by the US and Russian air forces, though it is nowhere near defeat.

...

The Syrian army is short of men and, while its morale may be higher thanks to the Russians, it is still exhausted by five years of war. The Syrian Kurds are successful, but averse to being used as cannon fodder by the US and they are nervous of Turkish intervention.

...

It is dangerous to describe any single phase of a long-running civil war as being decisive, but the coming months could be just that. The US and its allies in Syria, primarily the 25,000 fighters of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) with some Sunni Arab allies, are eager to cut Isis off from its last link, through Turkey, to the outside world. They are not far from achieving this. Arab units of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), an umbrella organisation dominated by the YPG, captured the Tishrin dam on the Euphrates, 55 miles east of Aleppo, on 23 December and are close to the Isis stronghold of Manbij.

But it is important for three reasons: first, Isis is now almost sealed off within its self-declared caliphate; second, the Syrian Kurds, using their surrogate, the SDF, have crossed west of the Euphrates despite Turkey’s threats never to let this happen without a military response; third, and most important, the attack of the SDF was supported by both US and Russian air strikes, though not at the same time. “The Russians are now carrying out most of the air strikes there,” said a Syrian Kurdish representative.

...

The big loser here could be Turkey ... the Turkish President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, soon made clear that he was supporting a Sunni Arab sectarian takeover that was anti-Shia, anti-Kurd and anti-secular and was bound to be resisted. Having first backed the Muslim Brotherhood, Turkey then tolerated or helped Isis, al-Nusra and extreme jihadi groups.

It was a calamitous miscalculation for Syria and for Turkey. For all President Erdogan’s neo-Ottoman dreams of making Turkey a great power in the Middle East again, he has achieved the opposite. How he responds to this failure should become clear in the coming months as the US and Russia try, in different ways, and in support of a rather different list of allies, to close the border between northern Syria and Turkey.

President Erdogan will either have to accept Turkey’s exclusion from northern Syria or increase Turkish military involvement, possibly including an invasion. Critical commentators in Turkey say he wanted to invade last year, but was restrained by senior Turkish army generals. Full-scale military engagement by Turkey would be more difficult today, since Russian military intervention and the shooting down of a Russian bomber by a Turkish F-16 on 24 November. A Turkish move into northern Syria now would face American disapproval and resistance by Russian aircraft and anti-aircraft missiles.

...

The war in Syria and Iraq is far from over but, as winners and losers emerge, the chances of local ceasefires and, ultimately, some sort of peace will become more feasible. The Assad government and the opposition may not be able to agree in Geneva, but the outside powers which support them are becoming increasingly eager to bring the conflict to an end

 

Situazione Militare in Siria al 2-2016.

http://sakeritalia.it/mondo/sitrep-geopolitica/situazione-militare-in-siria-al-2-2016/

 

E un po' di storia:







Anche a Homs si sta muovendo qualcosa di grosso... https://now.mmedia.me/lb/en/NewsReports/566565-regime-to-homs-rebels-surrender-or-face-destruction


Ma ormai ce l'hanno tutti ?? Non capisco... Non si sono mai visti e ora così tanti ??

 

I combattimenti a mu arrasat al khan, anche qui si vedono le trincee tirare su col buldozer da al nushra

 

I Negoziati di Ginevra, appena iniziati, sono già stati sospesi, fino al 25 febbraio

https://www.rt.com/news/330757-syria-talks-live-updates/

03 February 2016

18:03 GMT
UN envoy Staffan de Mistura announced on Wednesday that the Syria talks in Geneva are to be “temporarily halted” until February 25. The UN official said that he was not frustrated or disappointed with the process, but has to be realistic. Citing difficulties with select procedural matters for the break in talks, de Mistura said he remained determined to continue with the negotiations.

The announcement came following a meeting with the opposition delegation.

“I have concluded frankly that after the first week of preparatory talks there is more work to be done, not only by us but by the stakeholders," the UN envoy told reporters, adding that the talks are not being undertaken “for the sake of talking.”

A questo punto, vista la situazione sul campo, gli equilibri ai negoziati stavano evidentemente cambiando. I delegati delle opposizioni chiedevano l'immediato stop all'offensiva governativa.

Occhio a possibili mosse improvvise di Erdogan, ora che i suoi protetti sembrano sconfitti ed isolati.

 

Erdogan rischia grossissimo, se provasse il colpo grosso rischierebbe che la reazione russa ari le sue basi militari prima di un eventuale intervento della NATO. Secondo me non si muoverà alla luce del sole, al massimo tenterà di infiltrare "volontari" in Siria ma a questo punto mi sembra del tutto inutile e anzi sarebbe controproducente.

 

http://syriadirect.org/news/idlib-o...upply-route-and-with-it-cuts-off-fuel-access/



Ancora da murassat khan:





Retian, sembra che siano ancora FSA e Al Nushra



La Tiger force continua a spingere:

 

Vedo che stanno cercando di allargare il perimetro nei pressi di Sheikh Ahmad, mossa intelligente visto che con una sortita in forze in quella zona l'ISIS avrebbe potuto tagliare fuori l'aeroporto militare.

 

Violenti combattimenti a khalidiyah (Khan Touman) a sud di Aleppo, perchè FSA abbia attaccato lì non si sa, forse per riaprire la superstrada ? Per drenare lealiste risorse dal nord ?



Altra mappa nord aleppo, qui Rityan viene data come contesa, non come "totalmente" in mano a FSA e soci




Militare russo ucciso in Siria:

http://lenta.ru/news/2016/02/03/syria1/

 

Attorno a 5.05 si assistea d un lancio di razzi... e a me sembra proprio che la maggior parte faccia cilecca.

Poi non ho capito:
- quelle torrette applicate ai carri, pare di origine iraniana cosa sono? Semplici prolunghe o hanno componenti attive di qualche tipo.
- Non so se mi sono perso qualcosa, sacca di Aleppo: lealisti SAA contro FSA/Al Nusra (assediati) e Isis all'esterno; curdi alla finestra?

 

Hanno smesso l'attacco verso la centrale termoelettrica?

 

Razzi ? sembrano più proiettili

Sulle torrette, in rete, ci sono due linee di pensieri, una parla di allarmi in caso di puntamento laser o IR, l'altra di un sistema di disturbo che accecherebbe la tracciatura della guida IR di atgm come i TOW

I curdi se ne stanno buoni, si, l'Isis continua con scaramucce più a nord e sembra si stia trincerando a est di Aleppo per combattere dentro l'eventuale sacca, ma sono impegnati anche a Palmira e Deir ezzor, hanno un bel po' di "fronti" se così vogliamo chiamarli.

Stanotte sembra ci sia stata grossa battaglia i quella direzione:



Carrellata mattutina

Aleppo, lascia perplessi, colpire così una batteria d'artiglieria (posto che sia stata centrata, non è molto chiaro)


Ancora T-90 ad Aleppo, già modifiche sul campo, che ci stanno a fare quei sacchi ?



La reazione di ieri dell'FSA a Al-Khalidiyah sembra avesse proprio l'intento di riaprire la superstrada, il solito almasdarnews minimizza ma riaprire una linea di rifornimenti del genere è un bel problema per i lealisti.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...ern-aleppo-supply-line-seizing-al-khalidiyah/

Turchi... Ancora

https://www.rt.com/news/331206-turkey-russian-observation-flight/

Nuovo giocattolino:

 

le ultime parole famose
https://twitter.com/cahitstorm/status/695151490219040768

Daraa (è un condensato di reportage e propaganda) :