Storia di una sconfitta - Blizz contro MrKane

Squadriglie dedicate: 100% CAP o 100% escort

 

Ho postato sul tech forum

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=3910373

Ma ho qualche dubbio di avere risposta, Michaelm non sí vede piû da maggio...
Forse le patch e l'assistenza (intesa come interventi) sono finite...

 

Michaelm é tornato e mi ha scritto che ci dà un occhio! Gli ho mandato il save, é davvero un grande

 

​

In un mondo ideale parallelo... (dall'e-mail di Michaelm, forum matrix)

I ran the save on the latest build (official patch 7 + newer patch (unrelated to this)) and the Japan planes took out some the Allied ships.
I suspect that you may have got a set of bad die rolls.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Efate at 118,153

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 17,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 115
D4Y1 Judy x 63
D4Y3 Judy x 48
N1K2-J George x 116

Allied aircraft
FM-1 Wildcat x 167
FM-2 Wildcat x 28

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 22 destroyed, 6 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 16 destroyed, 6 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 15 destroyed, 1 damaged
N1K2-J George: 4 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-1 Wildcat: 9 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 1 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Tangier, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires
CVE Santee, Bomb hits 8, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Casablanca, Bomb hits 3, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
CVE Nassau, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Altamaha, Bomb hits 2, Torpedo hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
APA Harris
APA Barnett
APA John Penn
CVE Liscome Bay, Bomb hits 2, on fire
CVE Natoma Bay, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires
CVE Anzio, Bomb hits 4, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Corregidor, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Brooks
DE King, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
DE Harold C. Thomas
DE Canfield
APA J. Franklin Bell, Bomb hits 2, on fire
DE Cloues
DE Cabana, Bomb hits 1
DE Lawrence, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
APA Zeilin, Torpedo hits 1, on fire
DE Wileman, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
DE Gilmer, Bomb hits 1

Allied ground losses:
Vehicles lost 9 (2 destroyed, 7 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
10 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 15000 feet (Akagi-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
14 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' (Soryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
13 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 15000 feet (Soryu-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
15 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 15000 feet (Hiryu-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
6 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' (Amagi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
14 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Amagi-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
13 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 15000 feet (Chiyoda-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
12 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Unryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
8 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000' (Ryukaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
10 x B6N2 Jill bombing from 15000 feet (Ryukaku-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 2 x 250 kg SAP Bomb
6 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000' (Akagi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
2 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000' (Akagi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
2 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Soryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
5 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Hiryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
1 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' (Hiryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000' (Ryukaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000' (Akagi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
7 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' (Hiryu-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
6 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Amagi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb


Fuel storage explosion on CVE Tangier
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Tangier
Ammo storage explosion on CVE Tangier
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Santee
Massive explosion on CVE Nassau
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Altamaha
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Nassau
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Natoma Bay
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Anzio
Massive explosion on CVE Corregidor
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Corregidor
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Corregidor
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Altamaha
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Altamaha
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Wileman
Massive explosion on CVE Corregidor
Ammo storage explosion on CVE Corregidor
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Anzio


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Efate at 118,153

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 80 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 26 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 13
B6N2 Jill x 119
D4Y1 Judy x 48
D4Y3 Judy x 73
N1K2-J George x 99

Allied aircraft
FM-1 Wildcat x 119
FM-2 Wildcat x 19

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 7 destroyed, 8 damaged
B6N2 Jill: 3 destroyed by flak
D4Y1 Judy: 4 destroyed, 5 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
D4Y3 Judy: 11 destroyed, 7 damaged
D4Y3 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak
N1K2-J George: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
FM-1 Wildcat: 13 destroyed
FM-2 Wildcat: 2 destroyed

Allied Ships
CVE Anzio, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Whitman, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
APA Pierce
CL Boise, Torpedo hits 1
CL Honolulu
CVE Casablanca, Bomb hits 4, and is sunk
CVE Natoma Bay, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
CVE Liscome Bay, Bomb hits 5, heavy fires, heavy damage
CVE Santee, Bomb hits 6, and is sunk
CVE Nassau, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DE Canfield, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
APA J. Franklin Bell, heavy fires, heavy damage
DE Gilmer, Bomb hits 3, and is sunk
APA U.S. Grant
DE LeHardy
DE Deede
DE Fleming
CL Nashville
CL St. Louis
CVE Corregidor, Bomb hits 1, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
CVE Tangier, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DE Kane
DE Humphreys
DE Hatfield, Bomb hits 2, heavy fires, heavy damage
APA American Legion, Bomb hits 2
DE Harold C. Thomas, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
DE Cabana, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
APA Wharton, Torpedo hits 4, and is sunk
DE Engstrom
CVE Altamaha, and is sunk
DE Brooks
DE Stadtfeld
APA McCawley
DE Charles R. Greer, Bomb hits 1, heavy fires
CL Phoenix
APA Henderson, Torpedo hits 3, and is sunk
APA Sheridan, Bomb hits 1
DE Cloues

Allied ground losses:
1160 casualties reported
Squads: 25 destroyed, 30 disabled
Non Combat: 69 destroyed, 15 disabled
Engineers: 26 destroyed, 6 disabled
Guns lost 34 (34 destroyed, 0 disabled)
Vehicles lost 60 (60 destroyed, 0 disabled)

Aircraft Attacking:
8 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000' (Shokaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
14 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Shokaku-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000' (Zuikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
17 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Zuikaku-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
15 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Zuiho-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
3 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000' (Renkaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
18 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Renkaku-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
13 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' (Katsuragi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
14 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Katsuragi-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
12 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Nisshin-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
13 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' (Taikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
16 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Taikaku-3 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
1 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000' (Shokaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
7 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000' (Shokaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg GP Bomb
15 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 2000' (Zuikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
5 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 1000' (Renkaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Taikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
1 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000' (Zuikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
9 x D4Y3 Judy releasing from 3000' (Renkaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
3 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 3000' (Katsuragi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Katsuragi-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 1000' (Taikaku-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb

Fuel storage explosion on CVE Casablanca
Massive explosion on CVE Nassau
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Canfield
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Liscome Bay
Massive explosion on DE Gilmer
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Gilmer
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Tangier
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Anzio
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Harold C. Thomas
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Altamaha
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Charles R. Greer
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Casablanca
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Casablanca
Fuel storage explosion on CVE Liscome Bay
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring CVE Santee
Heavy smoke from fires obscuring DE Hatfield


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Efate at 118,153

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 77 NM, estimated altitude 20,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 19 minutes

Japanese aircraft
A6M8 Zero x 33
B6N2 Jill x 48
D4Y1 Judy x 7
N1K2-J George x 16

Allied aircraft
FM-1 Wildcat x 101
FM-2 Wildcat x 18

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 19 destroyed, 5 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed, 3 damaged
D4Y1 Judy: 1 destroyed by flak

Allied aircraft losses
FM-1 Wildcat: 4 destroyed

Allied Ships
DD Conway
CVE Anzio, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk
CVE Liscome Bay, Torpedo hits 2, and is sunk
DE Rathburne, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage
DE Humphreys
DE Sands, Torpedo hits 1, and is sunk

Aircraft Attacking:
1 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 10000' (Tokyo-1 Ku K-1/B / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb
5 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Aso-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
11 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Taiho-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
3 x B6N2 Jill launching torpedoes at 200 feet (Chitose-2 / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 18in Type 91 Torpedo
4 x D4Y1 Judy releasing from 2000' (Tokyo-1 Ku K-1/B / None)
Naval Attack: 1 x 500 kg SAP Bomb


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on TF, near Efate at 118,153

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid detected at 42 NM, estimated altitude 19,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 13 minutes

Japanese aircraft
B6N2 Jill x 15

Allied aircraft
FM-1 Wildcat x 89
FM-2 Wildcat x 17

Japanese aircraft losses
B6N2 Jill: 10 destroyed

No Allied losses



< Message edited by michaelm -- 8/15/2015 1:38:52 PM >

_____________________________

Michael

 

Tutte le 9 CVE sarebbero affondate o in procinto di affondare...
invece, pare a causa del file PWHEXE diverso (file con i dati della mappa , diverso per gli stacking limits e la mappa estesa) sono stati generati numeri casuali diversi e tutte le missioni di attacco sono abortite....

Bah... Me ne farò una ragione... Ma adesso c'é il dilemma di che fare con quelle Air TF cosí ridossate al nemico??
Cosa faranno gli Alleati, fuga precipitosa con le CVE e gli APA e attacco con le STF?

Potrei:
1) lanciargli addosso tutte le 3 STF e lasciare le AirTF in zona sperando che qualcosa resti impigliato dopo i combattimenti navali e subisca gli attacchi aerei (sperando che le AIr TF senza piú STF di scorta non entrino in contatto con i nemici).
2) ritirarmi con tutto lasciando in retroguardia le STF

Cosa ne pensate?

 

No no intendevo cosa ne pensate tra le mie opzioni 1 e 2? Attacco o ritirata?

La situazione è ancora questa, posto l' immagine, non ci siamo mossi:

Gli USA hanno 5 TF nello stesso hex:
1) una AirTF con le 9 CVE con circa 200 wildcat
2) due amphibious TF di APA e DE cariche di truppe
3) due piccole STF con 4-5 navi l'una (CA e DD)

E sono praticamente circondate, su tre lati, dalle mie 3 Air TF , ognuna accompagnata dalla sua STF, l'unico problema é che le mie TF non hanno molta nafta residua.

Io credo che l'Alleato muoverà a full speed verso est o sudest (gli unici lati liberi) le CVE e le due TF anfibie per cercare di salvarle. Forse sparandomi addosso le due STF per rallentarmi. Domanda 1: secondo voi cosa farà l'alleato?

Domanda 2: Come muovereste al mio posto?

 

Anche perché se riesco ad attaccare le CVE la CAP sarà molto piú nutrita perché come mi ha detto Tom l'aveva settata al 50% e, visti i risultati della simulazione, non mi stupirsi se la portasse al 100%

L'intenzione ormai é questa, attaccare! Il problema é : in che direzione?

Le CVE nemiche possono muovere a full speed (e quindi fare 12 hex); le mie CV possono andare solo con velocità di crociera dato che hanno i serbatoi mezzi vuoti (quindi 8 hex teorici, in realtà meno perché i DD di scorta sono quasi a secco e dovranno quindi fare rifornimento nel corso del movimento diminuendo la distanza percorsa a 7 o 6 hex a seconda della TF).
In pratica se non azzecco la direzione col cavolo che le raggiungo in posizione utile per lanciare !!
La direzione piú probabile é est, ma anche sudest (o addirittura nordest ) non sono da escludere, piú tutte le rotte intermedie...
Mumble mumble.... Dilemma... A'ndo vado?

 

IMHO ha ragione Tom, il generatore di numeri casuali é studiato male, in caso di sequenze puó portare a risultati assurdi come questo.
Ho postato di nuovo sul forum Matrix, magari Michaelm ci dà un occhio:
After this experience and explanation (thank you again ) I've still got a doubt:
That the set of random numbers generated is not so random actually.

It seems impossible that 3 different TF with good leaders and good weather, so close to enemy, got all of them, in both morning and afternoon phase bad rolls.
It should be 6 bad numbers against small odds!
It could happen of course, but it seems the same probability as to win new year's day lottery.

I suspect that the generation of multiple random numbers is affected by the first number extracted: If the first goes bad also the others go.
Just my thoughts

Hai ragione mi sono girate a manetta...
Tom non l'ho piú sentito da prima delle ferie, per me possiamo proseguire lo stesso. Adesso gli scrivo.

 

OK Thanks , ricordavo 6 hex a full speed per le CVE, in questo momento sono in vacanza e non ho il PC per controllare.
In effetti non so dove sono le sue CV, potrebbero anche spuntare e farmi un mazzo tanti. Se devo tirare a indovinare direi PH, ma magari sono dietro l'angolo.